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Colorado Springs vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
10/1/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 38Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Colorado Springs47%
×Draw25%
Rio Grande Valley28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.59
Rio Grande Valley
1.17

Colorado Springs creates 36% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 93 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
72%
Colorado Springs or Rio Grande Valley
75%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
53%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
24%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
80%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
47%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
21%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
69%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
33%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
63%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
47%
level
25%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
28%

Colorado Springs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Colorado Springs 1–1 Rio Grande Valley

Colorado Springs and Rio Grande Valley drew 1-1 in USL Championship on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Weidner Field in Colorado Springs.