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Colorado Springs vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
5/6/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13Weidner Field (Colorado Springs)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Colorado Springs35%
×Draw25%
Reno 186840%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.36
Reno 1868
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 44 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
60%
Colorado Springs or Reno 1868
75%
Draw or Reno 1868
65%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
16%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
74%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
39%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
16%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
77%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
43%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
47%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
35%
level
25%
Reno 1868 scores more
40%

Reno 1868 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Colorado Springs 0–0 Reno 1868

Colorado Springs and Reno 1868 drew 0-0 in USL Championship on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Weidner Field (Colorado Springs).