Colorado Springs 0–1 Northern Colorado

Colorado Springs

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Colorado

4/7/2022

US Open Cup · 2nd RoundWeidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Colorado Springs45%

×Draw25%

Northern Colorado30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado SpringsExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

Colorado Springs

1.58

Northern Colorado

1.25

Colorado Springs creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Colorado Springs

1.83

Northern Colorado

1.33

allows per match

Colorado Springs

1.17

Northern Colorado

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Northern Colorado →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw

70%

Colorado Springs or Northern Colorado

75%

Draw or Northern Colorado

55%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

23%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

79%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

47%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

21%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

71%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

36%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

60%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.83 + Northern Colorado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Northern Colorado attack 1.33 + Colorado Springs defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colorado Springs scores more

45%

level

25%

Northern Colorado scores more

30%

Colorado Springs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff