Colorado Springs 1–1 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Colorado Springs

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Indy Eleven

4/21/2024

USL Championship · Round 8Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Colorado Springs48%

×Draw25%

Indy Eleven27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado SpringsExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.10

Colorado Springs

1.55

Indy Eleven

1.10

Colorado Springs creates 41% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 130 away

1.52

creates per match

1.12

1.09

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Colorado Springs

1.52

Indy Eleven

1.12

allows per match

Colorado Springs

1.09

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw

73%

Colorado Springs or Indy Eleven

75%

Draw or Indy Eleven

52%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

24%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

79%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

46%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

20%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

67%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

30%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

64%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Indy Eleven attack 1.12 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colorado Springs scores more

48%

level

25%

Indy Eleven scores more

27%

Colorado Springs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff