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Colorado Springs vs Denver — US Open Cup 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Denver
Denver
5/17/2018US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundWeidner Field (Colorado Springs)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colorado Springs49%
×Draw24%
Denver27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.75
Denver
1.25

Colorado Springs creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.83
Denver
1.33

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.17
Denver
1.67

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
73%
Colorado Springs or Denver
76%
Draw or Denver
51%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
27%
Denver wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
83%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
52%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
25%
Denver 1+ goals
71%
Denver 2+ goals
36%
Denver 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
64%
Denver (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Denver away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.83 + Denver defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Denver attack 1.33 + Colorado Springs defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
49%
level
24%
Denver scores more
27%

Colorado Springs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Springs vs Denver

Colorado Springs beat Denver 3-2 in US Open Cup on May 17, 2018.

The match was played at Weidner Field (Colorado Springs).