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Colorado Springs vs Azteca — US Open Cup 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springsadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Azteca
Azteca
3/18/2026US Open CupUS Open Cup · Round of 128Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colorado Springs74%
×Draw16%
Azteca10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
2.54
Azteca
0.83

Colorado Springs creates 206% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.83
Azteca
0.50

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.17
Azteca
3.25

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Azteca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Azteca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
90%
Colorado Springs or Azteca
84%
Draw or Azteca
26%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
52%
Azteca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
92%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
72%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
46%
Azteca 1+ goals
56%
Azteca 2+ goals
20%
Azteca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
88%
Azteca (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Azteca away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.83 + Azteca defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.54

Azteca attack 0.50 + Colorado Springs defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
74%
level
16%
Azteca scores more
10%

Colorado Springs at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Colorado Springs 3–0 Azteca

Colorado Springs beat Azteca 3-0 in US Open Cup on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Weidner Field.