Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Colorado Springs vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
8/29/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 31Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Colorado Springs50%
×Draw24%
Austin Bold25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.65
Austin Bold
1.10

Colorado Springs creates 50% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 41 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
75%
Colorado Springs or Austin Bold
76%
Draw or Austin Bold
50%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
27%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
81%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
49%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
23%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
67%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
30%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
66%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
50%
level
24%
Austin Bold scores more
25%

Colorado Springs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Colorado Springs 4–1 Austin Bold

Colorado Springs beat Austin Bold 4-1 in USL Championship on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Weidner Field in Colorado Springs.