Colorado Rapids 3–2 San Diego: Result & Stats

Colorado Rapids

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

San Diego

Rafael Navarro 60'

D. Yapi 53'

D. Mihailovic 37' (pen)

T. Angel 89'

L. de la Torre 50'

4/13/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 8Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Colorado Rapids48%

×Draw21%

San Diego30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado RapidsExpected goals in this matchSan Diego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.62

Colorado Rapids

2.08

San Diego

1.62

Colorado Rapids creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

2.13

creates per match

1.61

1.62

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Colorado Rapids

2.13

San Diego

1.61

allows per match

Colorado Rapids

1.62

San Diego

2.02

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.79scores more than expected

finishing

Colorado Rapids-0.42scores less

San Diego+0.79scores more

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

San Diego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw

70%

Colorado Rapids or San Diego

79%

Draw or San Diego

52%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+

28%

San Diego wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals

87%

Colorado Rapids 2+ goals

61%

Colorado Rapids 3+ goals

34%

San Diego 1+ goals

80%

San Diego 2+ goals

48%

San Diego 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)

61%

San Diego (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

San Diego away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 2.13 + San Diego defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.08

San Diego attack 1.61 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more

48%

level

21%

San Diego scores more

30%

Colorado Rapids at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rafael Navarro

Colorado Rapids · F

8.5

Match Events

37'

D. MihailovicPenalty

46'

K. Rosenberry← R. Cannon

46'

H. Diop← F. Negri

50'

L. de la Torre↳ H. Lozano

53'

D. Yapi↳ C. Awaziem

60'

Rafael Navarro↳ C. Bassett

66'

K. Cabral← D. Yapi

69'

M. Iloski← A. Godoy

69'

A. Mighten← L. de la Torre

69'

W. Kumado← J. Loffelsend

75'

I. Murphy← S. Vines

75'

O. Fernandez← D. Mihailovic

84'

T. Ku-DiPietro← C. Bassett

84'

T. Angel← H. Lozano

89'

T. Angel↳ A. Dreyer

90+1'

Chidozie Awaziem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColoradoSan

Overview

38%Possession62%

20Total Shots11

3.41Expected Goals (xG)1.35

3Corners5

15Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots11

8On Target4

7Off Target4

5Blocked3

13Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

359Total Passes598

286Accurate Passes514

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

1.06Goals Prevented1.06

Discipline

15Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3

Major League Soccer: Colorado Rapids 3–2 San Diego

Colorado Rapids beat San Diego 3-2 in Major League Soccer on April 13, 2025.

Goals: D. Mihailovic (37' pen), L. de la Torre (50'), D. Yapi (53'), Rafael Navarro (60'), T. Angel (89').

San Diego controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado.

Colorado Rapids vs San Diego — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Major League Soccer: Colorado Rapids 3–2 San Diego