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Colorado Rapids vs Northern Colorado — US Open Cup 2018

Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
4/27/2023US Open CupUS Open Cup · 3rd RoundDick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colorado Rapids49%
×Draw27%
Northern Colorado24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rapids
1.42
Northern Colorado
0.92

Colorado Rapids creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Colorado Rapids
1.50
Northern Colorado
1.33

allows per match

Colorado Rapids
0.50
Northern Colorado
1.33

finishing

Colorado Rapids+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw
76%
Colorado Rapids or Northern Colorado
73%
Draw or Northern Colorado
51%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
24%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
76%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
41%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
17%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
60%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
23%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
67%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 1.50 + Northern Colorado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Northern Colorado attack 1.33 + Colorado Rapids defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more
49%
level
27%
Northern Colorado scores more
24%

Colorado Rapids at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Rapids vs Northern Colorado

Colorado Rapids beat Northern Colorado 3-1 in US Open Cup on April 27, 2023.

The match was played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado.