Colorado Rapids 1–2 FC Dallas: Result & Stats

Colorado Rapids

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FC Dallas

P. Aaronson 13'

S. Moreno 45' (pen)

L. Farrington 12' (pen)

5/24/2026

Major League Soccer · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Colorado Rapids46%

×Draw22%

FC Dallas32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado RapidsExpected goals in this matchFC Dallas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.56

Colorado Rapids

1.92

FC Dallas

1.56

Colorado Rapids creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

2.13

creates per match

1.50

1.62

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Colorado Rapids

2.13

FC Dallas

1.50

allows per match

Colorado Rapids

1.62

FC Dallas

1.71

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Colorado Rapids-0.42scores less

FC Dallas-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

FC Dallas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw

68%

Colorado Rapids or FC Dallas

78%

Draw or FC Dallas

54%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+

26%

FC Dallas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals

85%

Colorado Rapids 2+ goals

57%

Colorado Rapids 3+ goals

30%

FC Dallas 1+ goals

79%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

46%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)

59%

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

FC Dallas away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 2.13 + FC Dallas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Dallas attack 1.50 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more

46%

level

22%

FC Dallas scores more

32%

Colorado Rapids at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Binyamin

FC Dallas · D

7.3

Match Events

12'

L. FarringtonPenalty

13'

P. Aaronson↳ G. Minoungou

45+4'

L. Herrington

45+4'

L. Farrington

45'

S. MorenoPenalty

46'

M. Navarro← J. Travis

49'

P. Delgado

59'

C. Ronan← W. Frederick

65'

C. Cappis← P. Delgado

65'

S. Sarver← H. Johansson

65'

70'

73'

75'

75'

A. Manyoma← G. Minoungou

81'

K. Rosenberry← R. Cannon

83'

N. Simmonds← L. Farrington

84'

C. Swann← Ramiro

87'

W. Frederick

90+1'

S. Sarver

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColoradoFC

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots5

1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.70

5Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots5

5On Target2

7Off Target3

5Blocked0

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

544Total Passes296

480Accurate Passes226

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.07Goals Prevented0.07

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2