Colorado Rapids II 2–2 The Town: Result & Stats

Colorado Rapids II

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

The Town

6/5/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 15Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Colorado Rapids II36%

×Draw23%

The Town41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado Rapids IIExpected goals in this matchThe Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.71

Colorado Rapids II

1.60

The Town

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 54 away

1.75

creates per match

1.80

1.62

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Colorado Rapids II

1.75

The Town

1.80

allows per match

Colorado Rapids II

1.62

The Town

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids II ↓

The Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids II or draw

59%

Colorado Rapids II or The Town

77%

Draw or The Town

64%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+

18%

The Town wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals

80%

Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals

47%

Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals

22%

The Town 1+ goals

82%

The Town 2+ goals

51%

The Town 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)

47%

The Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.75 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

The Town attack 1.80 + Colorado Rapids II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colorado Rapids II scores more

36%

level

23%

The Town scores more

41%

The Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff