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Colorado Rapids II vs Sporting KC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Colorado Rapids II
Colorado Rapids II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
3/27/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 2Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Colorado Rapids II46%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rapids II
1.97
Sporting KC II
1.60

Colorado Rapids II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

Colorado Rapids II
1.75
Sporting KC II
1.59

allows per match

Colorado Rapids II
1.62
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids II or draw
68%
Colorado Rapids II or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
54%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+
26%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals
86%
Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals
58%
Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals
31%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
80%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
47%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)
59%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.75 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sporting KC II attack 1.59 + Colorado Rapids II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colorado Rapids II scores more
46%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
32%

Colorado Rapids II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colorado Rapids II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Rapids II vs Sporting KC II

Colorado Rapids II beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on March 27, 2023.

The match was played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado.