Colorado ISA 0–3 Park City Red Wolves

Colorado ISA

FT

0 – 3

Park City Red Wolves

6/20/2022

USL League Two · Round 43Englewood High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Colorado ISA15%

×Draw17%

Park City Red Wolves68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado ISAExpected goals in this matchPark City Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.62

Colorado ISA

1.18

Park City Red Wolves

2.62

Park City Red Wolves creates 122% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

0.76

creates per match

1.86

3.38

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Colorado ISA

0.76

Park City Red Wolves

1.86

allows per match

Colorado ISA

3.38

Park City Red Wolves

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado ISA+0.00on par

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado ISA ↓

Park City Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Colorado ISA or draw

32%

Colorado ISA or Park City Red Wolves

83%

Draw or Park City Red Wolves

85%

Winning margin

Colorado ISA wins by 2+

6%

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Colorado ISA 1+ goals

69%

Colorado ISA 2+ goals

33%

Colorado ISA 3+ goals

12%

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals

93%

Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals

73%

Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Colorado ISA (draw refunded)

18%

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado ISA at home — creates 0.76, concedes 3.38 · 29 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado ISA attack 0.76 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Colorado ISA defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Colorado ISA scores more

15%

level

17%

Park City Red Wolves scores more

68%

Park City Red Wolves at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff