Colorado Caieiras 3–1 Tupa: Result & Stats

Colorado Caieiras

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tupa

8/10/2024

Paulista Série B · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Carlos Ferracini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Colorado Caieiras43%

×Draw27%

Tupa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado CaieirasExpected goals in this matchTupa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Colorado Caieiras

1.34

Tupa

1.08

Colorado Caieiras creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.47

0.70

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Colorado Caieiras

1.00

Tupa

1.47

allows per match

Colorado Caieiras

0.70

Tupa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par

Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Caieiras ↓

Tupa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colorado Caieiras or draw

70%

Colorado Caieiras or Tupa

73%

Draw or Tupa

57%

Winning margin

Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+

20%

Tupa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals

74%

Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals

39%

Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals

15%

Tupa 1+ goals

66%

Tupa 2+ goals

29%

Tupa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)

59%

Tupa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Caieiras at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Caieiras attack 1.00 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tupa attack 1.47 + Colorado Caieiras defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colorado Caieiras scores more

43%

level

27%

Tupa scores more

30%

Colorado Caieiras at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colorado Caieiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff