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Colonia Moscardó vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó32%
×Draw27%
Villanueva Pardillo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.12
Villanueva Pardillo
1.31

Villanueva Pardillo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 50 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
59%
Colonia Moscardó or Villanueva Pardillo
73%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
68%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
13%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
67%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
31%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
10%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
73%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
38%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
44%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
32%
level
27%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
41%

Villanueva Pardillo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Colonia Moscardó 1–1 Villanueva Pardillo

Colonia Moscardó and Villanueva Pardillo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.