Colonia Moscardó 0–0 Trival Valderas

Colonia Moscardó

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Trival Valderas

1/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó34%

×Draw27%

Trival Valderas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colonia MoscardóExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.35

Colonia Moscardó

1.22

Trival Valderas

1.35

Trival Valderas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 115 away

1.14

creates per match

0.97

1.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.14

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.73

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw

60%

Colonia Moscardó or Trival Valderas

73%

Draw or Trival Valderas

66%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

14%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

70%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

34%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

12%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

74%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

39%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

46%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more

34%

level

27%

Trival Valderas scores more

40%

Trival Valderas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs Trival Valderas

Colonia Moscardó and Trival Valderas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.

Colonia Moscardó vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs Trival Valderas