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Colonia Moscardó vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó26%
×Draw23%
Leganés II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.23
Leganés II
1.81

Leganés II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 79 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
49%
Colonia Moscardó or Leganés II
77%
Draw or Leganés II
74%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
11%
Leganés II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
71%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
35%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
13%
Leganés II 1+ goals
84%
Leganés II 2+ goals
54%
Leganés II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
34%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
26%
level
23%
Leganés II scores more
51%

Leganés II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colonia Moscardó 0 – 1 Leganés II

Leganés II beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.