Colonia Moscardó 3–1 L'Hospitalet: Result & Stats

Colonia Moscardó

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

L'Hospitalet

Diego Guerrero 90+1'

Isaac Umpa 72'

Fran Sánchez 43'

Jesús Pozo 90+5'

6/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colonia Moscardó48%

×Draw28%

L'Hospitalet23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colonia MoscardóExpected goals in this matchL'Hospitalet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.83

Colonia Moscardó

1.33

L'Hospitalet

0.83

Colonia Moscardó creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.33

L'Hospitalet

1.00

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó

0.67

L'Hospitalet

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

L'Hospitalet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw

77%

Colonia Moscardó or L'Hospitalet

72%

Draw or L'Hospitalet

52%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

23%

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

74%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

38%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

15%

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

56%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

20%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

67%

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.33 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

L'Hospitalet attack 1.00 + Colonia Moscardó defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more

48%

level

28%

L'Hospitalet scores more

23%

Colonia Moscardó at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colonia Moscardó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Fran Sánchez

54'

Domingo Ayecaba← Julio Cidoncha

54'

M. Sennouni← Aitor Asensio

59'

Sanku← Óscar Gómez

59'

Lobato← Joel Lasso

67'

Canario← Ander Montori

72'

Isaac Umpa

73'

Jesús Pozo← Albert Lopez

73'

Sehou Sarr← Raúl Ferrer

82'

Nacho Maganto← Fran Sánchez

85'

Iker Perera← Isaac Umpa

90+1'

Diego Guerrero

90+5'

Jesús Pozo

Colonia

L'Hospitalet

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Umpa

⚽

Guerrero

▼

Asensio

Manager: Javi Poves

54'▲Domingo Ayecaba←▼Julio Cidoncha

54'▲M. Sennouni←▼Aitor Asensio

82'▲Nacho Maganto←▼Fran Sánchez

85'▲Iker Perera←▼Isaac Umpa

Colonia Moscardó substitutes

AyecabaSennouniMagantoPerera

Manager: Joan Sánchez

59'▲Sanku←▼Óscar Gómez

59'▲Lobato←▼Joel Lasso

67'▲Canario←▼Ander Montori

73'▲Jesús Pozo←▼Albert Lopez

73'▲Sehou Sarr←▼Raúl Ferrer

L'Hospitalet substitutes

SankuLobatoCanarioPozoSarr

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs L'Hospitalet

Colonia Moscardó beat L'Hospitalet 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 23, 2024.

Goals: Fran Sánchez (43'), Isaac Umpa (72'), Diego Guerrero (90+1'), Jesús Pozo (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.

Colonia Moscardó vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs L'Hospitalet