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Colonia Moscardó vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Getafe II
Getafe II
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 40Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Colonia Moscardó27%
×Draw26%
Getafe II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.07
Getafe II
1.51

Getafe II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Getafe II
1.29

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Getafe II
1.00

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
53%
Colonia Moscardó or Getafe II
74%
Draw or Getafe II
73%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
10%
Getafe II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
66%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
29%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
9%
Getafe II 1+ goals
78%
Getafe II 2+ goals
44%
Getafe II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
36%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
27%
level
26%
Getafe II scores more
47%

Getafe II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs Getafe II

Getafe II beat Colonia Moscardó 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.