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Colonia Moscardó vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
2/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó31%
×Draw25%
Alcobendas Sport44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.22
Alcobendas Sport
1.52

Alcobendas Sport creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 117 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
56%
Colonia Moscardó or Alcobendas Sport
75%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
69%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
13%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
70%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
34%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
12%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
78%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
45%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
41%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
31%
level
25%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
44%

Alcobendas Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colonia Moscardó 1 – 3 Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat Colonia Moscardó 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.