Colon Santa Fe 2–1 Sportivo Peñarol: Result & Stats

Colon Santa Fe

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sportivo Peñarol

3/2/2022

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Nuevo Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Colon Santa Fe65%

×Draw23%

Sportivo Peñarol12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colon Santa FeExpected goals in this matchSportivo Peñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.61

Colon Santa Fe

1.75

Sportivo Peñarol

0.61

Colon Santa Fe creates 187% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.71

creates per match

0.80

0.43

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Colon Santa Fe

1.71

Sportivo Peñarol

0.80

allows per match

Colon Santa Fe

0.43

Sportivo Peñarol

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colon Santa Fe ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colon Santa Fe or draw

88%

Colon Santa Fe or Sportivo Peñarol

77%

Draw or Sportivo Peñarol

35%

Winning margin

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

38%

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

Team goals

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

83%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

52%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

25%

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

46%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

13%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

84%

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colon Santa Fe at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colon Santa Fe attack 1.71 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.80 + Colon Santa Fe defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Colon Santa Fe scores more

65%

level

23%

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

12%

Colon Santa Fe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Colon Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff