Colon Santa Fe 1–1 Atlanta: Result & Stats

Colon Santa Fe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlanta

6/30/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Colon Santa Fe46%

×Draw31%

Atlanta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colon Santa FeExpected goals in this matchAtlanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.71

Colon Santa Fe

1.14

Atlanta

0.71

Colon Santa Fe creates 61% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 111 away

1.15

creates per match

0.84

0.59

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Colon Santa Fe

1.15

Atlanta

0.84

allows per match

Colon Santa Fe

0.59

Atlanta

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colon Santa Fe ↓

Atlanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Colon Santa Fe or draw

77%

Colon Santa Fe or Atlanta

69%

Draw or Atlanta

54%

Winning margin

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

20%

Atlanta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

68%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

32%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

11%

Atlanta 1+ goals

51%

Atlanta 2+ goals

16%

Atlanta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

67%

Atlanta (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colon Santa Fe at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.59 · 46 matches

Atlanta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.13 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colon Santa Fe attack 1.15 + Atlanta defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atlanta attack 0.84 + Colon Santa Fe defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colon Santa Fe scores more

46%

level

31%

Atlanta scores more

23%

Colon Santa Fe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colon Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff