Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Colombia W vs Uruguay W — Friendlies Women 2026

Colombia W
Colombia W
FT
1 – 0
Uruguay W
Uruguay W
M. Vanegas 71'
11/30/2021Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Colombia W49%
×Draw29%
Uruguay W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombia W
1.30
Uruguay W
0.79

Colombia W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Colombia W
1.43
Uruguay W
1.06

allows per match

Colombia W
0.52
Uruguay W
1.18

finishing

Colombia W+0.00on par
Uruguay W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombia W ↓

Uruguay W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Colombia W or draw
77%
Colombia W or Uruguay W
71%
Draw or Uruguay W
51%

Winning margin

Colombia W wins by 2+
23%
Uruguay W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colombia W 1+ goals
73%
Colombia W 2+ goals
37%
Colombia W 3+ goals
14%
Uruguay W 1+ goals
55%
Uruguay W 2+ goals
19%
Uruguay W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colombia W (draw refunded)
68%
Uruguay W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombia W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.52 · 21 matches

Uruguay W away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombia W attack 1.43 + Uruguay W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Uruguay W attack 1.06 + Colombia W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colombia W scores more
49%
level
29%
Uruguay W scores more
23%

Colombia W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colombia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
J. Villanueva← J. Villanueva
46'
A. J. Castaneda Vanegas← A. J. Castaneda Vanegas
46'
E. M. Bahr← E. M. Bahr
49'
L. Salazar← L. Salazar
58'
D. Caracas← D. Caracas
58'
C. Usme← C. Usme
58'
S. Lemos← S. Lemos
64'
L. Santos← L. Santos
69'
L. Tapia← L. Tapia
69'
D. Montoya← D. Montoya
71'
M. Vanegas
79'
M. T. Ramirez← M. T. Ramirez
83'
L. Gomez← L. Gomez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colombia W vs Uruguay W

Colombia W beat Uruguay W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on November 30, 2021.

Goals: M. Vanegas (71').

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.