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Colombia W vs New Zealand W — Friendlies Women 2020

Colombia W
Colombia W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Zealand W
New Zealand W
12/2/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 1Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Colombia W67%
×Draw23%
New Zealand W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombia W
1.71
New Zealand W
0.50

Colombia W creates 242% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Colombia W
1.43
New Zealand W
0.48

allows per match

Colombia W
0.52
New Zealand W
2.00

finishing

Colombia W+0.00on par
New Zealand W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombia W ↓

New Zealand W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Colombia W or draw
90%
Colombia W or New Zealand W
77%
Draw or New Zealand W
33%

Winning margin

Colombia W wins by 2+
39%
New Zealand W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Colombia W 1+ goals
82%
Colombia W 2+ goals
51%
Colombia W 3+ goals
24%
New Zealand W 1+ goals
39%
New Zealand W 2+ goals
9%
New Zealand W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Colombia W (draw refunded)
87%
New Zealand W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombia W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.52 · 21 matches

New Zealand W away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombia W attack 1.43 + New Zealand W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

New Zealand W attack 0.48 + Colombia W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Colombia W scores more
67%
level
23%
New Zealand W scores more
10%

Colombia W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Colombia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colombia W 0 – 0 New Zealand W

Colombia W and New Zealand W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..