Colombia 1–1 England: Result & Stats | World Cup

Colombia

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

England

L. Muriel 120+5' (pen)

J. Cuadrado 120+3' (pen)

R. Falcao 120+1' (pen)

Y. Mina 90+3'

E. Dier 120+10' (pen)

K. Trippier 120+8' (pen)

M. Rashford 120+4' (pen)

H. Kane 120+2' (pen), 57' (pen)

7/3/2018

World Cup · 8th FinalsOtkrytiye Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colombia29%

×Draw30%

England41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombiaExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.13

Colombia

0.90

England

1.13

England creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

2.25

0.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Colombia

0.67

England

2.25

allows per match

Colombia

0.00

England

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombia+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombia ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Colombia or draw

59%

Colombia or England

70%

Draw or England

71%

Winning margin

Colombia wins by 2+

10%

England wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Colombia 1+ goals

59%

Colombia 2+ goals

23%

Colombia 3+ goals

6%

England 1+ goals

68%

England 2+ goals

31%

England 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colombia (draw refunded)

41%

England (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

England away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombia attack 0.67 + England defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

England attack 2.25 + Colombia defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colombia scores more

29%

level

30%

England scores more

41%

England at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

K. Trippier

England · M

8.6

Match Events

41'

52'

54'

56'

57'

H. KanePenalty

62'

63'

64'

69'

79'

81'

E. Dier← D. Alli

88'

L. Muriel← J. Quintero

88'

J. Vardy← R. Sterling

90+3'

Y. Mina↳ J. Cuadrado

102'

D. Rose← A. Young

113'

M. Rashford← K. Walker

116'

C. Zapata← S. Arias

118'

Juan Cuadrado

120+1'

R. FalcaoPenalty

120+2'

H. KanePenalty

120+3'

J. CuadradoPenalty

120+4'

M. RashfordPenalty

120+5'

L. MurielPenalty

120+6'

J. HendersonMissed penalty

120+7'

M. UribeMissed penalty

120+8'

K. TrippierPenalty

120+9'

C. BaccaMissed penalty

120+10'

E. DierPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColombiaEngland

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots16

2Corners7

23Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target2

7Off Target9

3Blocked5

7Inside Box10

7Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

524Total Passes578

406Accurate Passes465

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls13

6Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2