Colombia 2–3 Costa Rica: Result & Stats

Colombia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Costa Rica

M. Moreno 73'

F. Fabra 6'

C. Borges 58'

F. Fabra 34' (OG)

J. Venegas 2'

6/12/2016

Copa America · Group Stage - 3NRG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colombia56%

×Draw24%

Costa Rica20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombiaExpected goals in this matchCosta Rica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.91

Colombia

1.70

Costa Rica

0.91

Colombia creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

0.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Colombia

1.73

Costa Rica

1.00

allows per match

Colombia

0.82

Costa Rica

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombia+0.00on par

Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombia ↓

Costa Rica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colombia or draw

80%

Colombia or Costa Rica

76%

Draw or Costa Rica

44%

Winning margin

Colombia wins by 2+

31%

Costa Rica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Colombia 1+ goals

82%

Colombia 2+ goals

51%

Colombia 3+ goals

24%

Costa Rica 1+ goals

60%

Costa Rica 2+ goals

23%

Costa Rica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Colombia (draw refunded)

74%

Costa Rica (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombia attack 1.73 + Costa Rica defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Costa Rica attack 1.00 + Colombia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Colombia scores more

56%

level

24%

Costa Rica scores more

20%

Colombia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Colombia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Borges

Costa Rica · M

7.7

Match Events

2'

J. Venegas↳ C. Borges

6'

F. Fabra

34'

F. FabraOwn goal

42'

Roger Martínez

44'

Randall Azofeifa

46'

J. Rodríguez← S. Pérez

46'

E. Cardona← D. Moreno

46'

B. Oviedo← J. Salvatierra

58'

C. Borges↳ B. Oviedo

66'

J. Cuadrado← F. Aguilar

73'

M. Moreno↳ J. Cuadrado

78'

79'

84'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColombiaCosta

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots8

4Corners1

10Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target3

5Off Target4

4Blocked1

6Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

443Total Passes408

370Accurate Passes317

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4