Colombia 3–0 Bolivia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Colombia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bolivia

L. Díaz 41'

J. Córdoba 25'

J. Arias 5'

6/15/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Colombia66%

×Draw22%

Bolivia12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombiaExpected goals in this matchBolivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.63

Colombia

1.84

Bolivia

0.63

Colombia creates 192% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 29 away

1.89

creates per match

0.59

0.67

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Colombia

1.89

Bolivia

0.59

allows per match

Colombia

0.67

Bolivia

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombia+0.00on par

Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombia ↓

Bolivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colombia or draw

88%

Colombia or Bolivia

78%

Draw or Bolivia

34%

Winning margin

Colombia wins by 2+

40%

Bolivia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Colombia 1+ goals

84%

Colombia 2+ goals

55%

Colombia 3+ goals

28%

Bolivia 1+ goals

47%

Bolivia 2+ goals

13%

Bolivia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Colombia (draw refunded)

85%

Bolivia (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombia at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombia attack 1.89 + Bolivia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bolivia attack 0.59 + Colombia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Colombia scores more

66%

level

22%

Bolivia scores more

12%

Colombia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Colombia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Díaz

Colombia · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

25'

34'

41'

46'

Y. Asprilla← J. Arias

46'

M. Borja← J. Córdoba

46'

C. Lampe← G. Viscarra

46'

D. Medina← Jesús Sagredo

46'

M. Terceros← R. Matheus

63'

R. Vaca← L. Justiniano

66'

66'

68'

68'

70'

70'

77'

82'

L. Chávez← B. Miranda

82'

G. Villamíl← F. Saucedo

84'

L. Sinisterra← J. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColombiaBolivia

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots6

2Corners1

15Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target4

11Off Target1

1Blocked1

15Inside Box0

2Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

523Total Passes290

459Accurate Passes236

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1