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Colombe vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
0 – 2
Union Douala
Union Douala
2/17/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Colombe48%
×Draw30%
Union Douala22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.25
Union Douala
0.74

Colombe creates 69% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 85 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
78%
Colombe or Union Douala
70%
Draw or Union Douala
52%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
22%
Union Douala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
71%
Colombe 2+ goals
36%
Colombe 3+ goals
13%
Union Douala 1+ goals
52%
Union Douala 2+ goals
17%
Union Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
69%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colombe scores more
48%
level
30%
Union Douala scores more
22%

Colombe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colombe vs Union Douala

Union Douala beat Colombe 2-0 in Elite One on February 17, 2019.