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Colombe vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
0 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
11/16/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 7Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colombe43%
×Draw30%
UMS de Loum27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.15
UMS de Loum
0.85

Colombe creates 35% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
73%
Colombe or UMS de Loum
70%
Draw or UMS de Loum
57%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
18%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
68%
Colombe 2+ goals
32%
Colombe 3+ goals
11%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
57%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
21%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
61%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colombe scores more
43%
level
30%
UMS de Loum scores more
27%

Colombe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Colombe 0–1 UMS de Loum

UMS de Loum beat Colombe 1-0 in Elite One on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.