Colombe 1–2 Renaissance: Result & Stats | Elite One

Colombe

FT

1 – 2

Renaissance

12/28/2022

Elite One · Round 10Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Colombe55%

×Draw26%

Renaissance19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombeExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.80

Colombe

1.54

Renaissance

0.80

Colombe creates 93% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 21 away

1.41

creates per match

0.81

0.78

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Colombe

1.41

Renaissance

0.81

allows per match

Colombe

0.78

Renaissance

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colombe or draw

81%

Colombe or Renaissance

74%

Draw or Renaissance

45%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+

29%

Renaissance wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals

79%

Colombe 2+ goals

45%

Colombe 3+ goals

20%

Renaissance 1+ goals

55%

Renaissance 2+ goals

19%

Renaissance 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)

74%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Renaissance defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Renaissance attack 0.81 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Colombe scores more

55%

level

26%

Renaissance scores more

19%

Colombe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff