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Colombe vs Racing — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
1 – 0
Racing
Racing
4/20/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Colombe52%
×Draw27%
Racing20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.42
Racing
0.77

Colombe creates 84% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 12 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Racing
0.75

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Racing
1.42

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Racing+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Racing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
80%
Colombe or Racing
73%
Draw or Racing
48%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
26%
Racing wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
76%
Colombe 2+ goals
41%
Colombe 3+ goals
17%
Racing 1+ goals
54%
Racing 2+ goals
18%
Racing 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
72%
Racing (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Racing away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Racing defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Racing attack 0.75 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Colombe scores more
52%
level
27%
Racing scores more
20%

Colombe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Colombe 1–0 Racing

Colombe beat Racing 1-0 in Elite One on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.