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Colombe vs Jeunes Fauves — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
8 – 2
Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
6/26/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 29Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Colombe55%
×Draw25%
Jeunes Fauves21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.61
Jeunes Fauves
0.88

Colombe creates 83% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 47 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Jeunes Fauves
0.98

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Jeunes Fauves
1.81

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Jeunes Fauves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
79%
Colombe or Jeunes Fauves
75%
Draw or Jeunes Fauves
45%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
29%
Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
80%
Colombe 2+ goals
48%
Colombe 3+ goals
22%
Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
59%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
22%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
73%
Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Colombe scores more
55%
level
25%
Jeunes Fauves scores more
21%

Colombe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Colombe 8–2 Jeunes Fauves

Colombe beat Jeunes Fauves 8-2 in Elite One on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.