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Colombe vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
1 – 1
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
11/20/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 8Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Colombe46%
×Draw28%
Fovu Club26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.31
Fovu Club
0.92

Colombe creates 42% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 67 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
74%
Colombe or Fovu Club
72%
Draw or Fovu Club
54%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
21%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
73%
Colombe 2+ goals
38%
Colombe 3+ goals
14%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
60%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
23%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
63%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colombe scores more
46%
level
28%
Fovu Club scores more
26%

Colombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Colombe 1–1 Fovu Club

Colombe and Fovu Club drew 1-1 in Elite One on November 20, 2019.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.