Colo Colo 0–1 Universidad de Chile: Result & Stats

Colo Colo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Chile

3/1/2026

Primera División · Round 5Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Colo Colo48%

×Draw26%

Universidad de Chile27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colo ColoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.05

Colo Colo

1.50

Universidad de Chile

1.05

Colo Colo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

1.64

creates per match

1.27

0.83

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Colo Colo

1.64

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

Colo Colo

0.83

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw

73%

Colo Colo or Universidad de Chile

74%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

52%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+

24%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals

78%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

44%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

19%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

65%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

28%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

64%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.83 · 130 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 1.64 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + Colo Colo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colo Colo scores more

48%

level

26%

Universidad de Chile scores more

27%

Colo Colo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile

Universidad de Chile beat Colo Colo 1-0 in Primera División on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.

Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile