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Colo Colo vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
11/12/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 27Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Colo Colo49%
×Draw26%
Union La Calera25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.50
Union La Calera
0.98

Colo Colo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 127 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
1.64
Union La Calera
1.12

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.83
Union La Calera
1.35

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
75%
Colo Colo or Union La Calera
74%
Draw or Union La Calera
51%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
25%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
78%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
44%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
19%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
62%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
26%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
67%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.83 · 130 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 1.64 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Colo Colo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colo Colo scores more
49%
level
26%
Union La Calera scores more
25%

Colo Colo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colo Colo vs Union La Calera

Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 2-0 in Primera División on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.