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Colo Colo vs SSA — Baiano - 2 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SSA
SSA
6/29/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Colo Colo30%
×Draw35%
SSA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
0.76
SSA
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
0.65
SSA
1.14

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.53
SSA
0.86

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
SSA+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

SSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
66%
Colo Colo or SSA
65%
Draw or SSA
70%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
9%
SSA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
53%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
18%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
4%
SSA 1+ goals
56%
SSA 2+ goals
20%
SSA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
47%
SSA (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

SSA away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 0.65 + SSA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

SSA attack 1.14 + Colo Colo defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Colo Colo scores more
30%
level
35%
SSA scores more
34%

SSA at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "SSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Colo Colo 0–0 SSA

Colo Colo and SSA drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.