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Colo Colo vs D. Melipilla — Primera División 2018

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
11/10/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 31Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Colo Colo57%
×Draw23%
D. Melipilla20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.76
D. Melipilla
0.92

Colo Colo creates 91% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 16 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
1.64
D. Melipilla
1.00

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.83
D. Melipilla
1.88

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
80%
Colo Colo or D. Melipilla
77%
Draw or D. Melipilla
43%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
32%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
83%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
52%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
26%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
60%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
23%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
75%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.83 · 130 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 1.64 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + Colo Colo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Colo Colo scores more
57%
level
23%
D. Melipilla scores more
20%

Colo Colo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colo Colo vs D. Melipilla

Colo Colo beat D. Melipilla 1-0 in Primera División on November 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.