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Colo Colo vs Botafogo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
1 – 0
Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
7/7/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Waldomiro Borges

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Colo Colo39%
×Draw31%
Botafogo BA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.04
Botafogo BA
0.88

Colo Colo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
0.65
Botafogo BA
1.22

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.53
Botafogo BA
1.44

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Botafogo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Botafogo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
70%
Colo Colo or Botafogo BA
69%
Draw or Botafogo BA
61%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
15%
Botafogo BA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
65%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
28%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
9%
Botafogo BA 1+ goals
59%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
22%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
56%
Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Botafogo BA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 0.65 + Botafogo BA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Botafogo BA attack 1.22 + Colo Colo defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colo Colo scores more
39%
level
31%
Botafogo BA scores more
30%

Colo Colo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Colo Colo 1–0 Botafogo BA

Colo Colo beat Botafogo BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Waldomiro Borges in Jequié, Bahia.