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Colmarberg vs FC Differdange 03 — Cup 2020

Colmarberg
Colmarberg
FT
0 – 14
HT: 0 – 5
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Grand Duc Henri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colmarberg0%
×Draw1%
FC Differdange 0399%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colmarberg
0.34
FC Differdange 03
7.32

FC Differdange 03 creates 2053% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Colmarberg
0.33
FC Differdange 03
4.64

allows per match

Colmarberg
10.00
FC Differdange 03
0.36

finishing

Colmarberg+0.00on par
FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colmarberg ↓

FC Differdange 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–38%
0–414%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 36% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
87%13%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Colmarberg or draw
1%
Colmarberg or FC Differdange 03
99%
Draw or FC Differdange 03
100%

Winning margin

Colmarberg wins by 2+
0%
FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
97%

Team goals

Colmarberg 1+ goals
29%
Colmarberg 2+ goals
5%
Colmarberg 3+ goals
1%
FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
100%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
99%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
94%

Draw no bet

Colmarberg (draw refunded)
0%
FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colmarberg at home — creates 0.33, concedes 10.00 · 3 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 4.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colmarberg attack 0.33 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.34

FC Differdange 03 attack 4.64 + Colmarberg defence 10.00 → ÷2 → 7.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

Colmarberg scores more
0%
level
1%
FC Differdange 03 scores more
99%

FC Differdange 03 at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Colmarberg 0–14 FC Differdange 03

FC Differdange 03 beat Colmarberg 14-0 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Grand Duc Henri in Colmar-Berg.