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Colmar vs Haguenau — League #68 2026

Colmar
Colmar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Haguenau
Haguenau
G. Taty 90'
D. Segbe Azankpo 44'
B. Beaumont 50', 24'
M. Correa 40'
8/23/2025League #68League #68 · Group B - 2Colmar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colmar22%
×Draw22%
Haguenau56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colmar
1.08
Haguenau
1.88

Haguenau creates 74% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Colmar
1.50
Haguenau
1.50

allows per match

Colmar
2.25
Haguenau
0.67

finishing

Colmar+0.00on par
Haguenau+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colmar ↓

Haguenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Colmar or draw
44%
Colmar or Haguenau
78%
Draw or Haguenau
78%

Winning margin

Colmar wins by 2+
8%
Haguenau wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Colmar 1+ goals
66%
Colmar 2+ goals
29%
Colmar 3+ goals
10%
Haguenau 1+ goals
85%
Haguenau 2+ goals
56%
Haguenau 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Colmar (draw refunded)
28%
Haguenau (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colmar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Haguenau away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colmar attack 1.50 + Haguenau defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Haguenau attack 1.50 + Colmar defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Colmar scores more
22%
level
22%
Haguenau scores more
56%

Haguenau at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Haguenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
B. Beaumont
40'
M. Correa
44'
D. Segbe Azankpo
45+1'
50'
B. Beaumont
73'
90'
G. Taty
Colmar
Haguenau
P. Moulin
Manager: P. Moulin
C. Deubel
Manager: C. Deubel

Match Recap: Colmar vs Haguenau

Haguenau beat Colmar 3-2 in League #68 on August 23, 2025.

Goals: B. Beaumont (24', 50'), M. Correa (40'), D. Segbe Azankpo (44'), G. Taty (90').

The match was played at Colmar Stadium in Colmar.