Collerense 2–1 Son Veri: Result & Stats

Collerense

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Son Veri

11/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Collerense72%

×Draw17%

Son Veri11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CollerenseExpected goals in this matchSon Veri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.85

Collerense

2.46

Son Veri

0.85

Collerense creates 189% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 20 away

1.26

creates per match

0.40

1.31

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Collerense

1.26

Son Veri

0.40

allows per match

Collerense

1.31

Son Veri

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par

Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Son Veri →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Collerense or draw

89%

Collerense or Son Veri

83%

Draw or Son Veri

28%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+

50%

Son Veri wins by 2+

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals

91%

Collerense 2+ goals

70%

Collerense 3+ goals

44%

Son Veri 1+ goals

57%

Son Veri 2+ goals

21%

Son Veri 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)

87%

Son Veri (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.46

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Collerense scores more

72%

level

17%

Son Veri scores more

11%

Collerense at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff