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Collerense vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
11/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Collerense33%
×Draw28%
Penya Independent39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.08
Penya Independent
1.20

Penya Independent creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
61%
Collerense or Penya Independent
72%
Draw or Penya Independent
67%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
13%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
66%
Collerense 2+ goals
29%
Collerense 3+ goals
10%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
70%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
34%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
46%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Collerense scores more
33%
level
28%
Penya Independent scores more
39%

Penya Independent at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Collerense 3–1 Penya Independent

Collerense beat Penya Independent 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.