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Collerense vs Migjorn — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Migjorn
Migjorn
2/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 22Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Collerense65%
×Draw21%
Migjorn14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.98
Migjorn
0.80

Collerense creates 147% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Migjorn
0.29

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Migjorn
2.71

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Migjorn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Migjorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
86%
Collerense or Migjorn
79%
Draw or Migjorn
35%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
40%
Migjorn wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
86%
Collerense 2+ goals
59%
Collerense 3+ goals
31%
Migjorn 1+ goals
55%
Migjorn 2+ goals
19%
Migjorn 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
82%
Migjorn (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Migjorn away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Migjorn defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Migjorn attack 0.29 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Collerense scores more
65%
level
21%
Migjorn scores more
14%

Collerense at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Collerense 1–1 Migjorn

Collerense and Migjorn drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.