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Collerense vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
CANC
00:00
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Collerense47%
×Draw25%
Ferriolense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.61
Ferriolense
1.18

Collerense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
72%
Collerense or Ferriolense
75%
Draw or Ferriolense
53%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
24%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
80%
Collerense 2+ goals
48%
Collerense 3+ goals
22%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
69%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
33%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
63%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Collerense scores more
47%
level
25%
Ferriolense scores more
28%

Collerense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Collerense face Ferriolense (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Collerense hosting Ferriolense. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Collerense host Ferriolense at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.