Collerense 4–2 Alcúdia: Result & Stats

Collerense

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Alcúdia

3/28/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Collerense47%

×Draw24%

Alcúdia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CollerenseExpected goals in this matchAlcúdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

Collerense

1.65

Alcúdia

1.23

Collerense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 79 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Collerense

1.26

Alcúdia

1.15

allows per match

Collerense

1.31

Alcúdia

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par

Alcúdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Alcúdia →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Collerense or draw

71%

Collerense or Alcúdia

76%

Draw or Alcúdia

53%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+

25%

Alcúdia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals

81%

Collerense 2+ goals

49%

Collerense 3+ goals

23%

Alcúdia 1+ goals

71%

Alcúdia 2+ goals

35%

Alcúdia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)

62%

Alcúdia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Alcúdia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.03 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Alcúdia defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Alcúdia attack 1.15 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Collerense scores more

47%

level

24%

Alcúdia scores more

29%

Collerense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff