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Banbridge Town vs Armagh City — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
FT
1 – 1
Armagh City
Armagh City
10/13/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 4Crystal Park (Banbridge)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Banbridge Town43%
×Draw23%
Armagh City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banbridge Town
1.72
Armagh City
1.51

Banbridge Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

creates per match

Banbridge Town
1.69
Armagh City
1.50

allows per match

Banbridge Town
1.52
Armagh City
1.75

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw
66%
Banbridge Town or Armagh City
77%
Draw or Armagh City
57%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+
22%
Armagh City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals
82%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
51%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
25%
Armagh City 1+ goals
78%
Armagh City 2+ goals
44%
Armagh City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
56%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.69 + Armagh City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.72

Armagh City attack 1.50 + Banbridge Town defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banbridge Town scores more
43%
level
23%
Armagh City scores more
34%

Banbridge Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Intermediate League: Banbridge Town 1–1 Armagh City

Banbridge Town and Armagh City drew 1-1 in Premier Intermediate League on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Crystal Park (Banbridge).