Armagh City 2–0 Banbridge Town: Result & Stats

Armagh City

FT

2 – 0

Banbridge Town

10/25/2022

League #561 · Round 6Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armagh City61%

×Draw20%

Banbridge Town19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armagh CityExpected goals in this matchBanbridge Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.17

Armagh City

2.21

Banbridge Town

1.17

Armagh City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.36

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Armagh City

1.36

Banbridge Town

1.06

allows per match

Armagh City

1.27

Banbridge Town

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par

Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Banbridge Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw

81%

Armagh City or Banbridge Town

80%

Draw or Banbridge Town

39%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+

38%

Banbridge Town wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals

89%

Armagh City 2+ goals

65%

Armagh City 3+ goals

38%

Banbridge Town 1+ goals

69%

Banbridge Town 2+ goals

33%

Banbridge Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)

76%

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.36 + Banbridge Town defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.21

Banbridge Town attack 1.06 + Armagh City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Armagh City scores more

61%

level

20%

Banbridge Town scores more

19%

Armagh City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff