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Khatlon vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
1 – 0
Parvoz
Parvoz
4/11/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 1Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khatlon64%
×Draw22%
Parvoz14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.84
Parvoz
0.73

Khatlon creates 152% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.50
Parvoz
0.52

allows per match

Khatlon
0.95
Parvoz
2.19

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
86%
Khatlon or Parvoz
78%
Draw or Parvoz
36%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
38%
Parvoz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
84%
Khatlon 2+ goals
55%
Khatlon 3+ goals
28%
Parvoz 1+ goals
52%
Parvoz 2+ goals
17%
Parvoz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
82%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.50 + Parvoz defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.84

Parvoz attack 0.52 + Khatlon defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Khatlon scores more
64%
level
22%
Parvoz scores more
14%

Khatlon at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Parvoz

Khatlon beat Parvoz 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 11, 2015.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.