Moyola Park vs Limavady United

Moyola Park

CANC

00:00

Limavady United

3/24/2020

League #561 · Round 11Mill Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moyola Park48%

×Draw19%

Limavady United32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyola ParkExpected goals in this matchLimavady United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.04

Moyola Park

2.50

Limavady United

2.04

Moyola Park creates 23% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 6 away

2.49

creates per match

2.83

1.26

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Moyola Park

2.49

Limavady United

2.83

allows per match

Moyola Park

1.26

Limavady United

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par

Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Limavady United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw

68%

Moyola Park or Limavady United

81%

Draw or Limavady United

52%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+

30%

Limavady United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals

92%

Moyola Park 2+ goals

71%

Moyola Park 3+ goals

45%

Limavady United 1+ goals

87%

Limavady United 2+ goals

60%

Limavady United 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)

60%

Limavady United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

Limavady United away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.49 + Limavady United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Limavady United attack 2.83 + Moyola Park defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moyola Park scores more

48%

level

19%

Limavady United scores more

32%

Moyola Park at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff