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Dundela vs Larne — Championship 2018

Dundela
Dundela
FT
0 – 5
Larne
Larne
4/13/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Promotion Round - 8Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dundela24%
×Draw22%
Larne54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
1.25
Larne
1.96

Larne creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.60
Larne
2.00

allows per match

Dundela
1.93
Larne
0.90

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Larne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
46%
Dundela or Larne
78%
Draw or Larne
76%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
10%
Larne wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
71%
Dundela 2+ goals
36%
Dundela 3+ goals
13%
Larne 1+ goals
86%
Larne 2+ goals
58%
Larne 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
31%
Larne (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Larne away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.60 + Larne defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.25

Larne attack 2.00 + Dundela defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dundela scores more
24%
level
22%
Larne scores more
54%

Larne at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundela vs Larne

Larne beat Dundela 5-0 in Championship on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Wilgar Park in Belfast.